When could the COVID-19 end?

Well, it's difficult to predict, however, we can certainly speculate. Let's look at some of the worst affected countries (9th March, 2020) and their progress:

China: in the above image, white regions have no existing Covid-19 cases. Although Hubei province (in dark brown) remains worst affected province of China, fortunately, the trend was quite good for the last couple of weeks, all across China.

However, South Korea has made a good progress. South Korea reported 69 new cases, continuing a downward trend. The death toll rose by one to 51. The new cases brought South Korea’s total infections to 7,382, while the death toll rose by one (to total 51). The rate of increase in new infections fell to its lowest in 10 days on Sunday in one of the countries most severely affected outside mainland China. 

Italy is another worst affected country. In Italy, the deaths rose from 233 to 366, a rise of more than 50% in 24 hours, with the total number of cases being about 7,375.

Moreover, the biggest concerns are about the old people in Italy. Some record suggests that 23% of the Italian population are over 65, making it the oldest in the world after Japan. This could partly explain the rising number of deaths in Italy.

Well, Italy is a developed country. With good medical facilities and coming lockdowns in Lombardy and other severely affected areas, we can expect Italy to recover in coming days.

how could the COVID-19 end?

Mostly probably by 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2021. This is too long right?

None of the country is able to find medicine or cure for COVID-19. Once they had medicine in hand, first trials will be on animals and then on humans which will take months. If any side effects the whole process will get repeated.

There is almost 700k to 1 millions death every year due to season flu and mostly during rainy season. In 3-4 months Asia will face rainy season and whenever there is season change in whole world numbers will up again. Can’t imagine how doctors or hospitals will tackle huge flow of patients.

After human trial is over and succeed it will take another 3-4 months to do production of medicine and then distribution to whole world. For sure it will be fast paced.

By the time medicine will be ready the COVID 19 numbers will be mind boggling. Asia might be better in summer but North Hampshire might face toughest time they had ever faced in history.

Some might think “its just flu”. Well it is but its infection rate is so high that it bring whole world on its KNEES. Its spread most in first 3 days of infection.

So it is important to keep yourself sanitize. You may have good immune system but still you can carry this virus and transmit to weaker people and your parents or grandparents could be the one.

Epidemics end in one of three ways:

1- Everyone who can get infected gets infected (see Black Death in Medieval Europe, Smallpox in Age of Exploration Americas, Spanish Flu in 1918–1920)

2- Government action finds everyone who is sick, quarantines them, and prevents further spreading (see Wuhan China, 2020, SARS in China In 2002, Ebola in West Africa, 2018)

3- Transmission slows in warm/dry weather (see influenza, every year)

We don’t know yet if Covid-19 will slow down when the Northern Hemisphere turns to Spring. Right now China is succeeding at #2, South Korea is trying, and rumor has it Italy will quarantine the North soon, but the rest of Europe and United States are experiencing uncontrolled outbreaks. Worst case is like Spanish flu, Covid-19 continues to spread throughout 2020, perhaps with a lull in the Summer, then continues on into 2021 until everyone has been exposed.

So far for most people who have caught the virus, it’s just another cold. Unfortunately for 2%-3.4%, it’s deadly.